Tuesday, October 28, 2008

This Race Couldn't Be Any Closer

Two independent polls have the Initaited Measure Race in a dead heat.

Check out the results:

Voters Split Evenly on SD Abortion Ban
PIERRE - On the most divisive issue on our 2008 ballot, South Dakota is
evenly divided.

An Argus Leader Media/KELO-TV poll showed a dead heat on Initiated
Measure 11, the state's proposed abortion ban: 44 percent said they'd vote for
it and 44 percent said they'd vote against it if the election were held
immediately. The poll was conducted Oct. 13-15, with a sample of 800 South
Dakotans who said they are likely voters. The poll's margin of error is 3.5
percentage points.The 12 percent who said they still are undecided will
determine the outcome of the issue Nov. 4.

"That's a very significant number of undecided at this late date in a
campaign on this issue," said Don Dahlin, longtime University of South Dakota
political scientist.

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It is an issue that has been part of a heated, emotional debate
across South Dakota for years. In 2006, voters defeated a measure to
ban abortion in the state.

Just two years later, they are being asked to decide on the same
issue.But unlike 2006, Initiated Measure 11 does include exceptions.
According to results of our KELO-TV/Argus Leader Scientific Poll, it is going to
be a close contest again this year.

When 800 registered voters were asked if they plan to vote for
Initiated Measure 11, 44 percent said yes and 44 percent said no. Just 12
percent are undecided. This is how the meausre was explained along
with results:Initiated Measure 11, to prohibit abortions except in cases where
the mother’s life or health is at a substantial and irreversible risk, and in
cases of reported rape and incest, is on the November ballot. If you were voting
on this Initiated Measure today, would you vote: Yes, to change the state law or
No, to keep it as is?

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Fighting the SD Abortion Ban. We're winning but It's Tight

When the anti-choice crowd crafted their latest attempt to ban
virtually all abortions in South Dakota, they thought they could trick the South
Dakotans who
crushed their 2006 referendum into supporting the 2008 version by adding superficial rape/incest and "health of the mother" exceptions to the ban. And frankly, so did a number of those who believe that women have a fundamental right to control over their bodies.

Although there's been precious little, if any, published polling of the ballot measure up until today, a 2006 KELO poll showed that rape and health exceptions would garner 58-30 support for a ban. And the general public perception as late as this summer was that the fig-leaf, meaningless "exceptions" to the ban would sway more than enough voters to easily push the ban through.
Today's Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows that's not the case -- thanks to the hard, unyielding work of the folks at the South Dakota
Campaign for Healthy Families
, the Orange to blue-endorsed organization that has led the fight for basic women's rights in South Dakota. In the new poll, 44 percent of the likely voters surveyed said they will vote against the ban, compared to just 42 percent who support it.

And even better, the No on 11 voters appear to be more committed than ban supporters, as 28 percent of the total are "strongly" against the ban, compared to just 24 percent who are "strongly" for it.

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